Real estate is one of the driving forces in the East End economy. This economy provides work for architects, builders and the many others employed by the industry. The East End also gave many homeowners hope and respite during a global pandemic, leading to record real estate numbers in 2020. We thought we would take a deep dive into what leaders in our market thought about the year-to-date data — from title experts to real estate attorneys to agents and brokers, after a record-breaking 2020, and to reveal their forecasts for 2022. The abstract is that it looks like sales will be phenomenal and the industry will continue to thrive.
So let’s go …
“We entered the 2021 market coming off of the strongest year in history and incredibly, that strength has continued. New signed contracts remain strong, as do our overall numbers, and we’re on pace to match or even out perform 2020. Ultimately, the fourth quarter will let us know where we will end up, but we’re heading into the end of the year with momentum, more inventory, and a lot of qualified and highly motivated buyers in circulation. We are still seeing that homes that are correctly priced will go into a multiple bid situation and that shows us that the buyers are still here and they are serious. Well into Fall, the pulse of the Hamptons remains exciting and invigorating. There is a sense that people are here to stay – there was no mass exodus at the close of the summer season. The cafes and restaurants are full, store fronts are open and there are no vacancies. All of the main streets throughout the towns are a buzz. The market remains robust and I think that will continue through the final quarter.”
Read more on Bourgard’s thoughts here and here.
CEO and Broker of Town & Country Real Estate
“The activity for the final quarter will be primarily determined by the containment of the virus and, as always, any stock market reverberations. We’re seeing more inventory come on though prices for the 3 Ls — land, lumber, and labor — as I call them, remain high. Therefore, builders are unable to replace inventory at the same prices. Purchasing a new home versus a resale, has always been the golden ring, after all the only scent that’s better than a new car smell is a new house smell!”
Regional Senior Vice President of the East End at The Corcoran Group
“There has been a sustained high-end buying spree across the East End as we progress through 2021. Sales of significant Hamptons properties priced over $3 million nearly tripled during the second quarter alone versus 2020, while the region’s sales volume over the same period soared 129 percent. I can report this momentum has certainly carried over into fall. Demand for homes is still remarkably strong and there is no shortage of would-be buyers. The problem is where to put them! Our very limited inventory remains a challenge and now is an ideal time for owners who may be on the fence, to list their home for sale. All indicators point toward a strong finish to the year, and beyond. Many rentals for the 2022 season are already spoken for, so it’s fair to say we are looking at a competitive environment across the board. Those looking for their own piece of the East End need to come prepared. However, I always believe that the unparalleled lifestyle, history, and recreational opportunities that residents are able to enjoy here definitely make the effort worthwhile!”
Executive Vice President and Regional Director of Advantage Title
“I believe that Q1 of 2022 will reflect much continued interest in owning a property on the East End. While it’s difficult to predict how the political and regulatory environment will affect investment overall, we still see an ongoing purchase trend focused on investment and full-time properties. This trend spans the North and South Forks, as well as Shelter Island. In helping clients facilitate these purchases, Advantage’s attention has been on expediting our services and offering due diligence reports early in the negotiation process. Inventory shortages and high demand have strengthened a seller’s market and bidding wars have been affecting sales prices. Timeliness is key; knowing an easement exists to the water offering access, building restrictions on vacant land or judgments and liens affecting the property, these are all aspects of a title report, and they provide critical information to a prospective buyer and their counsel. I’m excited about the prospects of the coming year and look forward to a continued robust real estate market that is a major economic driver for our area.”
Real Estate Associate Broker at Sotheby’s International Real Estate
“We’ve had unprecedented circumstances and record levels of activity during the last eighteen months of the pandemic, so I expect the 4th quarter to slow down a bit in a return to normalcy. Coupled with the fact that our inventory is at an all-time low, certain buyers are feeling more patient. However, it still requires quick, decisive action to purchase in a competitive market as compelling properties are trading within days of listing. Competition and lack of inventory aside, there are still properties with good value to be discovered as well as some off market opportunities for confident buyers. It’s a great time to be in the Hamptons.”
Real Estate Broker at Compass
“I remain optimistic that we will continue to see movement in the market as new inventory comes on. However, I do not see prices adjusting downward in response to the new inventory. Overall the Hamptons does not have an abundance of inventory, and the buyer demand will continue to outweigh the product. This summer, the residential climate in the Hamptons was strong, with bidding wars and all-cash offers increasing significantly. Days on the market continued to decrease throughout the summer. We anticipate the ultra high end, above $10 million, and the attainable market, below $2 million, to be some of the more active subsets in the market. The approachable price points have the deepest buyer pool, with a more extensive makeup of persistent millennial buyers. The ultra-luxury market is being carried by a strong year in the equities market paired with tremendous tech windfalls. We see continued steady demand for turn-key products, which we attribute to attractive lending packages, and more importantly, the opportunity costs for time spent renovating second homes.”
Compass HQ also reported:
“A preliminary look at Q3 shows nearly a 50 percent decrease in recorded closings and just over a 30 percent decrease in sales volume compared to 2020. In contrast to 2019, however, closings are flat, and sales volume is up 56 percent. These numbers will evolve as more data becomes available. ”
“Our September has been busier than expected. While the summer can oddly enough be a slower time in real estate (because people are actually enjoying their summer homes) September brings a wave of new deals from the renters that turn into buyers or those who intend to upgrade or even leave the area. I am seeing good properties sell quickly and I would anticipate the same to continue in the first quarter of 2022. Not only are rates historically low, the Hamptons offer unique properties in which extended families can gather. Our firm has also seen an uptick in land use related work. For example, our attorneys can handle and oversee applications with various regulatory boards to seek relief from the regulatory code. I would expect this to continue, as well as people looking to maximize their use for their ever evolving needs.”
“2021 has been a very good year historically. Not as many transactions as 2020, but we may never see that kind of activity again. Having a house outside of city is viewed as a necessary tool in the “tool box,” for those that can afford it. The basic requirements a house and property offers gives comfort in times of stress. I see this trend continuing throughout the remainder of the year, and well into 2022. Geographically, the Hamptons is well situated to appease the ever growing demand of those living in the tri-state area. It get them out of harm’s way, and into the “country.” So, sales and rentals will continue to be in demand, with affordable rentals becoming a thing of the past. There is a tremendous demand for year round rentals, but they are few and far between unless price is not much of a impediment. Such is the current state of affairs on the East End of Long Island.”
