On January 12, Jonathan Miller, founder of Miller Samuel, released his housing notes regarding some interesting predictions for the upcoming year.
According to Miller, “The Fed Pivot that began in December with the statement that there would be 75-basis point cuts in 2024 conveyed a sense of optimism to that economic sector after a rough two years of steep ascent in mortgage rates. Mortgage applications have rebounded, and credit has eased rapidly.”
He presents hopeful predictions for the housing market in 2024. Referencing the movie “Terminator,” he notes, “Housing’ll be back.” Or at least on its way.
“Of course, it’s also hard to believe that the Terminator came out 40 years ago and still holds up for its genre. My wife was nicknamed ‘Sarah Connor’ by her friends at the time. It’s a good metaphor for ending the housing recession if you take Arnold’s side (honestly, it’s probably just my way of giving a shout-out to a movie I saw three times in the theatre and countless times at home without saying, I can’t believe it’s been 40 years!) ‘Housing’ll be back.’ Kind of.”
Miller believes that 2024 will bring “Incremental Change” to the market.
“Mortgage rates have already fallen substantially since the Fed paused in December. Mortgage rates are expected to fall further in the first half of 2024 before the Fed cuts rates,” Miller wrote earlier in January.
“I struggled to better my 2023 market description: ‘2023: The Year of Disappointment.’ I ended up with a 2024 descriptor of ‘2024: The Year of Incremental Change.’ When I mentioned this descriptor to reporters, I could hear a pin drop and then a sense of their disappointment,” he continued.
“Quarterly sales expanded annually for the first time in two and a half years.”
• Price trend indicators surged to record highs and were more than double pre-pandemic levels
• Sales increased year over year for the first time in ten quarters
• Listing inventory increased annually for the fourth consecutive quarter
• Bidding war market share rose year over year to one in four sales
“Quarterly sales expanded annually for the second time in two and a half years.”
• Price trend indicators slipped annually but remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels
• Sales increased year over year for the second time in ten quarters
• Listing inventory fell annually for the second time after four quarters of increases
• Bidding war market share slipped year over year to nearly one in four sales